UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$551.42
-14.96 (-2.64%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 06, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$362.87
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$225.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $551.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $550.50 to $571.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 44.6) compared to its historical average (52.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 62.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $525.71, while resistance sits at $580.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $525.71, while resistance sits at $580.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$550.50 -
$571.58
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($587.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$550.50 -
$571.58
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$525.71
Resistance Level
$580.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.57
Wall Street Target
$587.50
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.1%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
44.6 vs 52.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$537.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$510.08
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$484.07
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→52)
$566.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.6, Growth: 1.4%)
$591.15
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$295.76
(-48%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 1.4%)
$251.39
(-56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 42.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.09
Bull Case
$592.36
(+7%)
Analyst growth -2.9%, PE expands to 46.6
Base Case
$538.51
(-2%)
Market implied -2.9%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case
$377.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 44.6 to 52.2
Stabilization Target:
$663.31
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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