UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$17.20
0.07 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
+11.54%
30d:
+61.96%
90d:
+65.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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1 traders called UMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: UMC is 14.4% above its trading range ($15.04). Market expects 12.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: UMC is 14.4% above its trading range ($15.04). Market expects 12.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.36
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $17.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.10 to $15.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.36. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.36. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.10 -
$15.04
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 39.8% above Wall St target ($10.36)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 12.4% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.10 -
$15.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.89
Resistance Level
$17.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.43
Wall Street Target
$10.36
(-39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 15.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.33
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$21.73
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$24.42
(+42%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$27.52
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$26.72
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$18.83
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$23.81
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$21.64
(+26%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$11.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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