UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$24.54
-1.17 (-4.55%)
▼
5d:
-11.5%
30d:
+9.26%
90d:
+173.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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1 traders called UMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMC trades at premium valuation expecting 17.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: UMC trades at premium valuation expecting 17.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.04
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $24.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.50 to $25.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.10, while resistance sits at $28.96. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.25. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.10, while resistance sits at $28.96. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.25. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$20.50 -
$25.90
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading 33.8% above Wall St target ($16.25)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 17.8% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.50 -
$25.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.10
Resistance Level
$28.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.10
Wall Street Target
$16.25
(-33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.8% premium
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 18.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.91
(+18%)
2-Year Target
$34.05
(+39%)
3-Year Target
$40.12
(+64%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.52
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 17.8%)
$40.10
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$29.02
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$24.51
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$37.19
(+52%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 45.6
Base Case
$33.81
(+38%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$17.48
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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