UNFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNFI - United Natural Foods Inc
$37.23
-0.05 (-0.13%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UNFI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UNFI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.73
40.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNFI is currently trading at $37.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.99 to $36.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNFI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $33.36, while resistance sits at $39.38.
Market Sentiment: UNFI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.12 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNFI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $33.36, while resistance sits at $39.38.
Market Sentiment: UNFI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.12 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.99 -
$36.16
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.99 -
$36.16
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.66
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.36
Resistance Level
$39.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$41.13
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.3%
Profit Margin
-0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 18.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$30.20
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$27.18
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→19)
$37.82
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.1%)
$127.04
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 27.1%)
$76.56
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 27.1%)
$65.07
(+75%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$51.88
(+39.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Danielle Benedict
SELL
11655 shares
2025-09-30
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