UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$19.89
-0.84 (-4.05%)
▼
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
+6.88%
90d:
+11.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPBD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UPBD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.74
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $19.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.74 to $19.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.2) is in line with its historical norms (4.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: UPBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+43.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: UPBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+43.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.74 -
$19.30
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.3% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.74 -
$19.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.85
Resistance Level
$19.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.18
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+43.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$20.53
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$20.86
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.95
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.3%)
$150.52
(+657%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 13.3%)
$28.90
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 13.3%)
$24.57
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$45.61
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$41.46
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$14.10
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey J Brown
BUY
2502 shares
2026-01-06
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