UPBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPBD - Upbound Group, Inc. Common Stock
$17.13
-0.28 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-8.79%
30d:
-9.27%
90d:
-15.66%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.74
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.84
4.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPBD is currently trading at $17.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.96 to $19.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.7) is in line with its historical norms (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $17.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+63.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $17.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+63.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.96 -
$19.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.7% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.96 -
$19.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.01
Resistance Level
$19.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.66
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+63.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.7 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.89
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.38
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$15.89
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$17.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$152.32
(+775%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 13.3%)
$25.30
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 13.3%)
$21.51
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$38.02
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$34.56
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$11.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.02
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey J Brown
BUY
2502 shares
2026-01-06
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