UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$95.99
1.19 (1.26%)
▲
5d:
-1.72%
30d:
-17.22%
90d:
-4.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
UPS is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-05-15 with 11,570 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
Get Alerted When UPS Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UPS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UPS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$166.53
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.40
7.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $95.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.94 to $113.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.07 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.07 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$96.94 -
$113.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.07)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$96.94 -
$113.63
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.01
Resistance Level
$99.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.90
Wall Street Target
$113.07
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.97
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$85.38
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$81.02
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$94.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$258.49
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$137.32
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$116.72
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.56
Bull Case
$127.95
(+31%)
Analyst growth 21.3%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$116.32
(+19%)
Market implied 21.3%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$65.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$110.74
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Norman M Brothers Jr
SELL
25014 shares
2026-01-28
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
Top Rated Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation |
BUY
32 analysts |
$400 | 58 HOLD |
|
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$28 | 59 HOLD |
|
JBHT
JB Hunt Transport Servic… |
BUY
26 analysts |
$211 | 54 HOLD |
|
CHRW
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$194 | 57 HOLD |
|
GXO
GXO Logistics Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$72 | 54 HOLD |
Advanced UPS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPS price and gamma walls.
