UPWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPWK - Upwork Inc. Common Stock
$20.03
-0.99 (-4.71%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
UPWK is down 9.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $22.5 2026-04-17 with 1,757 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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2 traders called UPWK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPWK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UPWK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.48
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.82
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPWK is currently trading at $20.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.84 to $21.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.70, while resistance sits at $22.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.90 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.70, while resistance sits at $22.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.90 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$19.84 -
$21.16
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPWK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.84 -
$21.16
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.70
Resistance Level
$22.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.77
Wall Street Target
$23.90
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$21.61
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$21.92
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.5%)
$37.28
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$24.70
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 5.5%)
$21.00
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$18.45
(-8%)
Analyst growth -18.2%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$16.77
(-16%)
Market implied -18.2%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$13.95
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hayden Brown
SELL
20000 shares
2025-09-19
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SELL
10014 shares
2025-09-19
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SELL
10894 shares
2025-09-18
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Advanced UPWK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPWK price and gamma walls.
