VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$75.44
3.15 (4.36%)
▲
5d:
+12.88%
30d:
+16.1%
90d:
+39.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 09, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$164.55
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.17
26.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $75.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.89 to $72.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.15 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.15 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.89 -
$72.47
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($92.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.89 -
$72.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.77
Resistance Level
$75.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.44
Wall Street Target
$92.15
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
97.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.06
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$58.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$52.70
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$71.54
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.0%)
$5934.85
(+8110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$118.85
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$101.02
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.86
Bull Case
$150.48
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$136.80
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$46.51
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.6
Stabilization Target:
$98.14
(+35.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 12:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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