VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$60.36
-2.33 (-3.72%)
▼
5d:
-7.18%
30d:
-21.32%
90d:
-12.67%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.46
Based on 0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.20
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $60.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.39 to $74.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.60 (+60.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.60 (+60.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$65.39 -
$74.87
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.0% below Wall St target ($96.60)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.39 -
$74.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.01
Resistance Level
$78.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.33
Wall Street Target
$96.60
(+60.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
97.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.32
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$48.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$44.00
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$80.79
(+34%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.7%)
$3594.22
(+5855%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: -3.7%)
$53.93
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: -3.7%)
$45.84
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.86
Bull Case
$137.92
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$125.38
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$42.63
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.6
Stabilization Target:
$110.83
(+83.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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