VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$33.14
-0.28 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-1.63%
30d:
-12.33%
90d:
+10.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
VVV is down 6.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-04-17 with 71 OI. Call ratio: 77% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.77
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.25
6.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $33.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.50 to $37.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.73 (+25.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.73 (+25.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.50 -
$37.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VVV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($41.73)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.50 -
$37.67
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.33
Resistance Level
$35.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.59
Wall Street Target
$41.73
(+25.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.55
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$32.25
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$33.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$72.53
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$53.84
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$45.76
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case
$72.03
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.2
Base Case
$65.48
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.5
Bear Case
$22.26
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$34.16
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
3200 shares
2025-11-26
Lori Ann Flees
BUY
4500 shares
2025-11-24
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Advanced VVV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VVV price and gamma walls.
