VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$32.72
0.16 (0.49%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.03
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.17
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $32.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.88 to $32.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.13 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.13 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$29.88 -
$32.61
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($39.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.88 -
$32.61
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.91
Resistance Level
$33.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.36
Wall Street Target
$39.13
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.3%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.69
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$32.82
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$32.95
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.1%)
$74.95
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 19.1%)
$54.98
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$46.73
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$43.05
(+32%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$39.14
(+20%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$22.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
J Kevin Willis
BUY
12725 shares
2025-08-14
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VVV price and gamma walls.
