XPOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$5.85
0.10 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
+1.92%
30d:
+37.32%
90d:
-33.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
XPOF is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $7.5 2026-04-17 with 440 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: XPOF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: XPOF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.49
38.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $5.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.05 to $7.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.36, while resistance sits at $6.11.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.39 (+45.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.36, while resistance sits at $6.11.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.39 (+45.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$5.05 -
$7.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.9% below Wall St target ($8.39)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.05 -
$7.31
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.59
(10.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.36
Resistance Level
$6.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.08
Wall Street Target
$8.39
(+45.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.69
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.23
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$5.78
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.2%)
$44.61
(+676%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 28.2%)
$12.11
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 28.2%)
$10.29
(+79%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.85
(+36.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced XPOF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.
