ZGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$13.17
0.18 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
+2.09%
30d:
-9.79%
90d:
+21.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZGN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZGN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
16.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $13.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.38 to $14.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.38 -
$14.83
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.52)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.38 -
$14.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.70
Resistance Level
$15.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.69
Wall Street Target
$13.52
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.20
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$13.22
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$13.25
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 29.2%)
$28.41
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.2%)
$25.06
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 29.2%)
$21.30
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.43
Bull Case
$17.90
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$16.27
(+24%)
Market implied 24.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$8.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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