ZGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$12.58
-0.10 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
-4.41%
30d:
+8.92%
90d:
+13.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.53
19.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $12.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.63 to $12.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.6) is in line with its historical norms (24.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.78, while resistance sits at $13.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.78, while resistance sits at $13.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.63 -
$12.63
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.63 -
$12.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.08
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.78
Resistance Level
$13.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.61
Wall Street Target
$13.19
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 24.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.43
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.35
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
$12.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 29.5%)
$27.30
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 29.5%)
$25.52
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 29.5%)
$21.70
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$16.49
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.4%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$14.99
(+19%)
Market implied 18.4%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$8.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.6 to 24.1
Stabilization Target:
$12.84
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ZGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ZGN price and gamma walls.
