ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$23.05
0.40 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
-7.69%
90d:
-11.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZUMZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZUMZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.44
29.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $23.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.48 to $24.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (25.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.48 -
$24.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.48 -
$24.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.38
Resistance Level
$25.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.48
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 25.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.85
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$20.72
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$19.64
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→25)
$23.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 40.3%)
$65.51
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$63.66
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 40.3%)
$54.11
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$34.28
(+49%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$31.17
(+35%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$15.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 25.2
Stabilization Target:
$27.05
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
9974 shares
2026-04-01
Adam Christopher Ellis
SELL
7319 shares
2025-12-22
Travis Smith
SELL
9175 shares
2025-12-19
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