AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.
$13.30
-0.21 (-1.55%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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8 traders called AAL this week
78% bullish • 2 bearish
78% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.30
47.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $13.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.34 to $15.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.9) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.74 (+33.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.74 (+33.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.34 -
$15.96
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.4% below Wall St target ($17.74)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.34 -
$15.96
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.17
Resistance Level
$15.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.89
Wall Street Target
$17.74
(+33.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-83.1%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.70
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$15.25
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.5%)
$134.62
(+912%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: 30.5%)
$29.54
(+122%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 30.5%)
$25.11
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 7.21 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.84
Bull Case
$16.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$13.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$10.17
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$20.93
(+57.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.
