CPA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CPA - Copa Holdings, S.A.
$135.51
20.59 (17.92%)
▲
5d:
+10.26%
30d:
+12.29%
90d:
-9.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CPA is 10.4% above its trading range ($122.77). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CPA is 10.4% above its trading range ($122.77). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.26
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CPA is currently trading at $135.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.97 to $122.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 17.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CPA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.33 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 17.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CPA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.33 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$113.97 -
$122.77
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+17.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($160.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$113.97 -
$122.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.95
Resistance Level
$136.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.97
Wall Street Target
$160.33
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.81
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$140.16
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$142.54
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$135.06
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 34.2%)
$1036.55
(+665%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 34.2%)
$327.58
(+142%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 34.2%)
$278.44
(+106%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.28
Bull Case
$151.07
(+12%)
Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$137.33
(+1%)
Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$78.15
(-42%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CPA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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