CPA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CPA - Copa Holdings, S.A.
$152.65
-0.40 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
+11.56%
90d:
+29.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CPA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CPA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$233.67
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CPA is currently trading at $152.65, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.92 to $153.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $151.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.87 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $151.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.87 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$135.92 -
$153.06
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($169.87)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$135.92 -
$153.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.08
Resistance Level
$151.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.78
Wall Street Target
$169.87
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.98
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$167.66
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$175.70
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$153.59
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$738.93
(+384%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$263.91
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 20.0%)
$224.33
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.16
Bull Case
$192.53
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.4%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$175.02
(+15%)
Market implied 14.4%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$104.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CPA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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