ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$38.16
-0.40 (-1.04%)
▼
5d:
-5.99%
30d:
-10.3%
90d:
-31.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ALK is down 6.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 3,464 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.97
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $38.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.20 to $41.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.39, while resistance sits at $42.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.56 (+50.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.39, while resistance sits at $42.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.56 (+50.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.20 -
$41.97
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.8% below Wall St target ($57.56)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.20 -
$41.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.39
Resistance Level
$42.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.97
Wall Street Target
$57.56
(+50.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.75
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$35.39
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$34.08
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$38.22
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (79x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 78.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$84.83
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 86.6
Base Case
$77.12
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 78.7
Bear Case
$26.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 66.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$42.80
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
24000 shares
2026-02-18
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
14500 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced ALK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.
