AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$51.46
-0.11 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
+1.42%
30d:
-3.22%
90d:
+24.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
AAP is up 4.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $50 2026-04-17 with 356 OI. Put ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.19
32.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $51.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.00 to $54.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.54, while resistance sits at $54.45.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.45 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.54, while resistance sits at $54.45.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.45 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$50.00 -
$54.47
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.00 -
$54.47
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.54
Resistance Level
$54.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.18
Wall Street Target
$57.45
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.4%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$45.18
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$42.29
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$51.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 42.3%)
$252.70
(+390%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 42.3%)
$148.65
(+188%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 42.3%)
$126.35
(+145%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$103.49
(+104%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.8
Base Case
$94.08
(+85%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.6
Bear Case
$31.99
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$63.01
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kristen L Soler
SELL
7662 shares
2025-11-13
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Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
