ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$90.25
-2.44 (-2.63%)
▼
5d:
+3.86%
30d:
+4.66%
90d:
-2.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.96
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $90.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.21 to $90.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.9) is in line with its historical norms (26.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.25 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.25 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$87.21 -
$90.78
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($110.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.21 -
$90.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.35
Resistance Level
$90.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.95
Wall Street Target
$110.25
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.1%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 26.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.44
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$86.68
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$84.94
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→27)
$90.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$123.76
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.1%)
$108.05
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 11.1%)
$91.84
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.07
Bull Case
$120.15
(+33%)
Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 33.2
Base Case
$109.22
(+21%)
Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 30.2
Bear Case
$63.03
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.9 to 26.5
Stabilization Target:
$95.87
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Jonathan L. Jackson
SELL
2026-03-19
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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