ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$89.88
0.18 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
-4.97%
30d:
-3.97%
90d:
-5.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ORLY is down 5.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-06-18 with 5,907 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.86
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $89.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.36 to $95.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.17 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.17 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$91.36 -
$95.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($109.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$91.36 -
$95.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.82
Resistance Level
$100.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.82
Wall Street Target
$109.17
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.1%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 27.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$84.57
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$82.12
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→27)
$89.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 11.1%)
$122.85
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.1%)
$109.10
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 11.1%)
$92.74
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.07
Bull Case
$118.31
(+32%)
Analyst growth 17.7%, PE expands to 32.7
Base Case
$107.55
(+20%)
Market implied 17.7%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$62.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.8 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$97.96
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Jonathan L. Jackson
SELL
2026-03-19
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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