ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$94.36
0.09 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+3.32%
30d:
-2.82%
90d:
-5.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ORLY is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $108 2026-03-20 with 1,366 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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1 traders called ORLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.60
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $94.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.58 to $97.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.3) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.72 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.72 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$92.58 -
$97.94
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($105.72)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$92.58 -
$97.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.22
Resistance Level
$95.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.27
Wall Street Target
$105.72
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.3 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.20
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$90.17
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$88.18
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→28)
$94.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$128.82
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$110.76
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.2, Growth: 11.0%)
$94.15
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$121.36
(+29%)
Analyst growth 20.8%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$110.33
(+18%)
Market implied 20.8%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$62.10
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 28.1
Stabilization Target:
$100.82
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-13
Christopher Andrew Manci…
SELL
2355 shares
2025-11-26
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORLY price and gamma walls.
