ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$96.30
0.17 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+2.47%
30d:
-1.8%
90d:
-2.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACGL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACGL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.19
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $96.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.97 to $97.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 94.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.92 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.92 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$93.97 -
$97.26
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($108.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.97 -
$97.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.79
Resistance Level
$97.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.73
Wall Street Target
$108.92
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
94.6%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.11
(0%)
2-Year Target
$95.92
(0%)
3-Year Target
$95.72
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$96.45
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$265.10
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 6.8%)
$117.25
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 6.8%)
$99.66
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.00
Bull Case
$80.54
(-16%)
Analyst growth -23.8%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$73.22
(-24%)
Market implied -23.8%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$65.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$97.03
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 25, 2026 7:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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