ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$244.50
-6.54 (-2.61%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
+8.6%
90d:
+1.71%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
18d
Smart Money Distribution
ADSK is up 5.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $185 2026-06-18 with 4,371 OI. Put ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$416.60
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.68
5.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $244.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.20 to $245.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $231.14, while resistance sits at $255.13.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.55 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $231.14, while resistance sits at $255.13.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.55 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$231.20 -
$245.94
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($325.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$231.20 -
$245.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$231.14
Resistance Level
$255.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.98
Wall Street Target
$325.55
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 23.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$235.94
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$227.68
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$219.72
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$245.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$376.96
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$360.47
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$306.40
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.22
Bull Case
$552.29
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.9
Base Case
$502.08
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.1
Bear Case
$170.71
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$272.70
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
