AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$104.55
-4.09 (-3.76%)
▼
5d:
-11.23%
30d:
-11.78%
90d:
-7.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 24, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
AIR is up 12.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $110 2026-06-18 with 10 OI. Put ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AIR is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AIR is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.59
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.30
0.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $104.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.10 to $120.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.00 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.00 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$109.10 -
$120.91
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($131.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.10 -
$120.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.63
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.81
Resistance Level
$121.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.66
Wall Street Target
$131.00
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.98
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$101.44
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$99.92
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$104.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$185.54
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$156.84
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 14.5%)
$133.31
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$145.61
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.2%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$132.37
(+22%)
Market implied 23.2%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$73.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.7 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$109.28
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
Sarah Louise Flanagan
SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
