ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$50.83
-2.47 (-4.63%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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1 traders called ALK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.72
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $50.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.80 to $51.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.17, while resistance sits at $53.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.87 (+33.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.17, while resistance sits at $53.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.87 (+33.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$48.80 -
$51.85
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($70.87)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$48.80 -
$51.85
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.17
Resistance Level
$53.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.32
Wall Street Target
$70.87
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.45
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$44.04
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$40.03
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$53.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 55.1%)
$635.22
(+1092%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 55.1%)
$179.89
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 55.1%)
$152.90
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.53
Bull Case
$61.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$50.83
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$38.88
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$70.90
(+33.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.0%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle B Levine
SELL
5914 shares
2025-08-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
5000 shares
2025-08-13
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