AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.
$12.70
-0.01 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-3.64%
30d:
+4.35%
90d:
-9.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
AAL is up 8.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 83,285 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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3 traders called AAL this week
67% bullish • 1 bearish
67% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.13
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $12.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.35 to $12.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.37.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+17.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.37.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+17.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.68
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.63
Resistance Level
$13.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$14.86
(+17.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-83.1%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 5.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.65
(0%)
2-Year Target
$12.60
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.55
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$12.78
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$27.96
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.1
Base Case
$25.42
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$8.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$12.94
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.
