ALLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLE - Allegion Public Limited Company
$140.58
0.65 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
+2.61%
30d:
+8.26%
90d:
-2.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.68
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLE is currently trading at $140.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.07 to $135.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.18 (+17.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.18 (+17.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$129.07 -
$135.09
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALLE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($165.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.07 -
$135.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.69
Resistance Level
$142.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.70
Wall Street Target
$165.18
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.22
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$132.00
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$127.91
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$141.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.9%)
$269.36
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 8.9%)
$181.75
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 8.9%)
$154.49
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$201.15
(+43%)
Analyst growth 30.7%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$182.86
(+30%)
Market implied 30.7%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$95.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$154.97
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sue Main
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-11
Steven Mizell
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-19
Steven Mizell
SELL
400 shares
2026-02-18
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