ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$113.81
-0.65 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-9.17%
90d:
+12.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALSN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.4% annual earnings decline despite 117% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALSN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.4% annual earnings decline despite 117% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$241.14
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$149.73
24.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $113.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.96 to $122.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 117.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $109.42, while resistance sits at $119.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.50 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $109.42, while resistance sits at $119.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.50 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$112.96 -
$122.51
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($130.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$112.96 -
$122.51
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.98
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$109.42
Resistance Level
$119.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.80
Wall Street Target
$130.50
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
117.0%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$106.81
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$103.18
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$114.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 23.7%)
$495.51
(+333%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 23.7%)
$216.87
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 23.7%)
$184.34
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.33
Bull Case
$193.95
(+69%)
Analyst growth 59.3%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$176.32
(+54%)
Market implied 59.3%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$75.28
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$127.26
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
John Coll
SELL
1791 shares
2025-12-31
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