ALV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$121.24
-5.19 (-4.11%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.13
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.55
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $121.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.01 to $127.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $119.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.64 (+14.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $119.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.64 (+14.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$121.01 -
$127.40
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($138.64)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$121.01 -
$127.40
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.33
Resistance Level
$130.14
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.76
Wall Street Target
$138.64
(+14.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.0%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.27
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$111.50
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$106.93
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$121.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$436.75
(+260%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$191.22
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$162.54
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.65
Bull Case
$158.38
(+31%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$143.99
(+19%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$85.85
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$137.84
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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