AON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AON - Aon plc Class A
$317.22
1.81 (0.57%)
▲
5d:
+1.42%
30d:
-5.4%
90d:
-1.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AON is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $370 2026-06-18 with 137 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$508.72
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$315.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AON is currently trading at $317.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.21 to $328.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $321.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $387.32 (+22.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $321.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $387.32 (+22.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$313.21 -
$328.52
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($387.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$313.21 -
$328.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$306.52
Resistance Level
$321.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.82
Wall Street Target
$387.32
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$307.70
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$298.47
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$289.52
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$316.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.0%)
$664.33
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$446.02
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 12.0%)
$379.12
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.23
Bull Case
$407.44
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$370.40
(+17%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$214.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$346.82
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darren Zeidel
SELL
5040 shares
2026-02-17
Lester B Knight
BUY
4000 shares
2026-02-10
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Advanced AON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AON price and gamma walls.
