AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.48
0.03 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-8.05%
30d:
-7.28%
90d:
-12.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.59
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.96
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.76 to $6.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.76 -
$6.03
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($6.80)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.76 -
$6.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.44
Resistance Level
$6.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.64
Wall Street Target
$6.80
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 16.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.18
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.89
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$4.62
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$5.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$12.36
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$7.74
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$6.58
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.26
(+69%)
Analyst growth 54.5%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$8.42
(+54%)
Market implied 54.5%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$3.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.51
(+18.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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