AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.79
0.04 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
-3.02%
30d:
-9.25%
90d:
-14.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.85
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.12
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.02 to $6.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.78 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.78 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.02 -
$6.39
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.02 -
$6.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.72
Resistance Level
$6.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.28
Wall Street Target
$6.78
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.20
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$4.95
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$5.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.2%)
$12.57
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$8.13
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 12.2%)
$6.91
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.80
(+70%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$8.91
(+55%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$3.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.68
(+16.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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