AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$84.65
3.76 (4.65%)
▲
5d:
+6.69%
30d:
-7.84%
90d:
-18.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 185% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 185% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.58
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.82
17.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $84.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.48 to $93.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.55, while resistance sits at $93.83. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.38 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.55, while resistance sits at $93.83. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.38 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$81.48 -
$93.18
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.8% below Wall St target ($118.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.48 -
$93.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.55
Resistance Level
$93.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.96
Wall Street Target
$118.38
(+39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.2%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.20
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$70.41
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$64.21
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$84.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$329.95
(+290%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 12.5%)
$120.64
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$102.54
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.81
Bull Case
$138.89
(+64%)
Analyst growth 56.1%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$126.26
(+49%)
Market implied 56.1%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$55.01
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$111.61
(+31.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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