AXON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXON - Axon Enterprise, Inc. Common Stock
$399.37
7.49 (1.91%)
▲
5d:
+1.27%
30d:
-0.86%
90d:
-7.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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3 traders called AXON this week
50% bullish • 3 bearish
50% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.8% annual earnings decline despite 90% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.8% annual earnings decline despite 90% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$514.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$319.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXON is currently trading at $399.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $375.41 to $409.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.8) compared to its historical average (57.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 89.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.00, while resistance sits at $438.97.
Market Sentiment: AXON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $662.04 (+65.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.00, while resistance sits at $438.97.
Market Sentiment: AXON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $662.04 (+65.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$375.41 -
$409.31
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.8% below Wall St target ($662.04)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$375.41 -
$409.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$366.00
Resistance Level
$438.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.77
Wall Street Target
$662.04
(+65.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
89.8%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.8 vs 57.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$359.43
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$323.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$291.14
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→57)
$439.36
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.8, Growth: 37.5%)
$1038.59
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 37.5%)
$607.68
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 37.5%)
$516.53
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 50.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.99
Bull Case
$482.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 52.5
Base Case
$399.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 50.0
Bear Case
$305.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.8 to 57.0
Stabilization Target:
$602.68
(+50.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeri Williams
SELL
157 shares
2026-03-17
Erika Nardini
SELL
198 shares
2026-03-17
Jennifer H Mak
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXON price and gamma walls.
