BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$78.63
-2.34 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.31%
30d:
-18.09%
90d:
-23.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
BLDR is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $125 2026-05-15 with 235 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$236.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.71
46.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $78.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.46 to $99.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.24 (+55.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.24 (+55.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$82.46 -
$99.90
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.9% below Wall St target ($126.24)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$82.46 -
$99.90
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.55
Resistance Level
$86.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.54
Wall Street Target
$126.24
(+55.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 15.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.87
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$65.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$59.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→16)
$88.45
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 30.2%)
$378.43
(+367%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 30.2%)
$178.53
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 30.2%)
$151.75
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$176.37
(+108%)
Analyst growth 97.4%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$160.34
(+89%)
Market implied 97.4%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$55.23
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$121.33
(+49.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paul S Levy
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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