JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$144.89
1.09 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
+4.05%
30d:
+5.6%
90d:
+4.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: JCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.50
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $144.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.19 to $144.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.3) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$138.19 -
$144.27
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.19)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.19 -
$144.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.40
Resistance Level
$147.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.29
Wall Street Target
$151.19
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.9%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$146.69
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$148.16
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$143.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 16.6%)
$227.78
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.6%)
$198.50
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$168.73
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.28
Bull Case
$270.36
(+88%)
Analyst growth 73.4%, PE expands to 47.6
Base Case
$245.78
(+71%)
Market implied 73.4%, PE stable at 43.2
Bear Case
$96.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Daniel C Mcconeghy
SELL
3600 shares
2026-02-23
Todd M Grabowski
SELL
6050 shares
2026-02-06
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