BZH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BZH - Beazer Homes USA, Inc. New
$21.57
-2.64 (-10.90%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BZH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BZH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.08
38.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BZH is currently trading at $21.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.49 to $23.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.30, while resistance sits at $24.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.30, while resistance sits at $24.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.49 -
$23.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BZH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.49 -
$23.85
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.31
Resistance Level
$24.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.18
Wall Street Target
$26.00
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.9%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.76
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$21.39
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$20.11
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$24.09
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 106.3%)
$222.78
(+820%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 106.3%)
$81.71
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 106.3%)
$69.45
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$50.51
(+134%)
Analyst growth 94.7%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$45.92
(+113%)
Market implied 94.7%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$16.03
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$29.01
(+19.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BZH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BZH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BZH price and gamma walls.
