BZH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BZH - Beazer Homes USA, Inc. New
$19.24
0.47 (2.50%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
-21.05%
90d:
-4.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BZH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BZH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.82
39.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BZH is currently trading at $19.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.35 to $24.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.58, while resistance sits at $21.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+35.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.58, while resistance sits at $21.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+35.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$19.35 -
$24.35
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($26.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.35 -
$24.35
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.38
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.58
Resistance Level
$21.06
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.43
Wall Street Target
$26.00
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.9%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.32
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$19.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 301.3%)
$225.54
(+1072%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 301.3%)
$64.94
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 301.3%)
$55.19
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.47
Bull Case
$23.39
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$19.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$14.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$26.31
(+36.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 8:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BZH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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