CAE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAE - CAE INC
$25.23
-0.65 (-2.51%)
▼
5d:
-6.35%
30d:
-6.76%
90d:
-16.51%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.78
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAE is currently trading at $25.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.60 to $27.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.9) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.43 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.43 (+29.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.60 -
$27.22
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.2% below Wall St target ($33.43)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.60 -
$27.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.25
Resistance Level
$27.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.86
Wall Street Target
$33.43
(+29.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.9%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.75
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$25.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$25.49
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$25.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$30.71
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$29.06
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 3.9%)
$24.70
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.86
Bull Case
$41.60
(+61%)
Analyst growth 44.3%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$37.82
(+46%)
Market implied 44.3%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$17.82
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$26.18
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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