CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$125.24
2.27 (1.85%)
▲
5d:
+8.89%
30d:
+0.42%
90d:
+32.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
CF is down 6.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 2,832 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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2 traders called CF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 115% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 115% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.28
Based on -18.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $125.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.55 to $127.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 115.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $113.31, while resistance sits at $130.43.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $113.31, while resistance sits at $130.43.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$118.55 -
$127.60
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($120.74)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.55 -
$127.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.31
Resistance Level
$130.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.23
Wall Street Target
$120.74
(-3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.1%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.10
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$113.27
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$107.72
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$125.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -40.6%)
$179.36
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: -40.6%)
$91.30
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -40.6%)
$77.60
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$135.85
(+9%)
Analyst growth 0.4%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$123.50
(-1%)
Market implied 0.4%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$83.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$146.04
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik M Mayer
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-17
Richard A Hoker
SELL
3499 shares
2026-03-17
Bert A Frost
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CF price and gamma walls.
