CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$110.54
2.38 (2.20%)
▲
5d:
+4.79%
30d:
-2.59%
90d:
-13.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.9% annual earnings decline despite 115% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CF appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.9% annual earnings decline despite 115% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.91
Based on -16.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $110.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.65 to $114.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 115.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.16 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.16 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$104.65 -
$114.29
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($125.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.65 -
$114.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.70
Resistance Level
$111.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.01
Wall Street Target
$125.16
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.1%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.91
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$95.81
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$89.20
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$110.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -37.3%)
$175.34
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: -37.3%)
$80.58
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: -37.3%)
$68.50
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$118.36
(+7%)
Analyst growth -0.5%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$107.60
(-3%)
Market implied -0.5%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$73.55
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$136.93
(+23.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik M Mayer
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-17
Richard A Hoker
SELL
3499 shares
2026-03-17
Bert A Frost
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-17
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