CHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHD - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
$94.05
-0.60 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
+0.65%
30d:
-0.52%
90d:
-7.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CHD is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-07-17 with 70 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.00
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHD is currently trading at $94.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.16 to $96.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.4) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$93.16 -
$96.10
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($102.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.16 -
$96.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.05
Resistance Level
$96.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.45
Wall Street Target
$102.16
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.58
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$93.11
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$92.65
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$94.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 7.1%)
$115.58
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.1%)
$108.76
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$92.45
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.04
Bull Case
$137.34
(+46%)
Analyst growth 31.9%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$124.85
(+33%)
Market implied 31.9%, PE stable at 31.1
Bear Case
$64.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.5 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$95.44
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Penry W Price
SELL
7000 shares
2026-03-12
Janet S Vergis
SELL
12960 shares
2026-02-04
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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