CME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$299.53
1.82 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
+6.5%
30d:
+1.12%
90d:
-1.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
CME is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $340 2026-06-18 with 786 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$378.63
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$235.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $299.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $283.94 to $299.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $304.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $304.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$283.94 -
$299.41
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CME? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($306.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$283.94 -
$299.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$280.63
Resistance Level
$304.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.12
Wall Street Target
$306.60
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Profit Margin
63.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 23.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$295.62
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$293.55
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$291.49
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$297.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$345.11
(+16%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 5.0%)
$328.94
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 5.0%)
$279.60
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.18
Bull Case
$345.48
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$314.07
(+6%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$202.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.1 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$303.84
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 12:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan L Marcus
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-17
Bryan T Durkin
SELL
4200 shares
2026-02-23
Martin J Gepsman
SELL
300 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced CME Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CME price and gamma walls.
