DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$89.58
-0.39 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
-4.94%
30d:
-10.36%
90d:
-28.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$195.25
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.23
26.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $89.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.64 to $104.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.88, while resistance sits at $98.66.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.61 (+39.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.88, while resistance sits at $98.66.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.61 (+39.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$92.64 -
$104.61
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.1% below Wall St target ($124.61)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.64 -
$104.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.88
Resistance Level
$98.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.29
Wall Street Target
$124.61
(+39.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 17.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.70
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$74.51
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$67.95
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→18)
$89.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 17.4%)
$240.59
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$144.84
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$123.11
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.94
Bull Case
$112.33
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$102.12
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$61.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$117.99
(+31.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-28
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
175 shares
2026-01-07
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