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EL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

EL - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A

PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS
$80.28
-0.55 (-0.68%) ▼
5d: -6.87%
30d: +6.56%
90d: -25.83%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Protect Your EL Gains
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

EL is up 11.2% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $85 2026-06-18 with 8,190 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.19
16.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $80.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.55 to $82.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.2) compared to its historical average (33.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: EL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $94.64 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $73.55 - $82.48
Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 73.8%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($94.64)
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $73.55 - $82.48
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $78.53
Resistance Level $87.90
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.23
Wall Street Target $94.64 (+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -45.5%
Profit Margin -1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical 25.2 vs 33.7 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -9.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $72.89 (-9%)
2-Year Target $66.19 (-18%)
3-Year Target $60.10 (-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→34) $80.27 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 25.2, Growth: 31.9%) $184.14 (+129%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 31.9%) $161.08 (+101%)
Bear: (PE: 18.8, Growth: 31.9%) $136.92 (+71%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.2 to 33.7
Stabilization Target: $107.23 (+33.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +33.6%
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Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is EL showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul SELL 2026-02-02
Meridith Webster SELL 5430 shares 2025-11-18

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Advanced EL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EL price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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