EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$196.63
1.97 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
-4.05%
30d:
-2.31%
90d:
-14.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215.10
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $196.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.06 to $209.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.67 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.67 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$199.06 -
$209.90
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($222.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.06 -
$209.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$192.90
Resistance Level
$220.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.51
Wall Street Target
$222.67
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$194.28
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$193.11
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$196.74
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -1.1%)
$271.40
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: -1.1%)
$190.45
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: -1.1%)
$161.89
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.24
Bull Case
$205.05
(+4%)
Analyst growth -4.2%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$186.41
(-5%)
Market implied -4.2%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$132.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$200.32
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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