EXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXR - Extra Space Storage, Inc.
$138.24
-3.95 (-2.78%)
▼
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-2.4%
90d:
-5.55%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
EXR is down 5.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 536 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.11
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXR is currently trading at $138.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.24 to $144.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $138.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $138.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$138.24 -
$144.21
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($152.40)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 3.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.24 -
$144.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.63
(3.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$138.57
Resistance Level
$145.60
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.74
Wall Street Target
$152.40
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.6%
Profit Margin
27.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
29.7 vs 28.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.61
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$145.05
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$146.50
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$141.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.7, Growth: 4.2%)
$161.04
(+13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.2%)
$119.33
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 4.2%)
$101.43
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.44
Bull Case
$168.66
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 35.3
Base Case
$153.33
(+8%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$96.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Joseph D Margolis
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-13
Julia Letlow
BUY
2026-02-12
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Advanced EXR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXR price and gamma walls.
