FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$313.00
-0.89 (-0.28%)
▼
5d:
-4.99%
30d:
-4.86%
90d:
-12.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FDX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FDX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$331.31
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$205.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $313.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $309.38 to $370.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $349.72 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $349.72 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$309.38 -
$370.10
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($349.72)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$309.38 -
$370.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.81
Resistance Level
$413.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.05
Wall Street Target
$349.72
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$312.69
(0%)
2-Year Target
$312.37
(0%)
3-Year Target
$312.06
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$313.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.8%)
$402.43
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: -1.8%)
$296.53
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: -1.8%)
$252.05
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.74
Bull Case
$359.34
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.1%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$326.67
(+4%)
Market implied 4.1%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$213.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$314.00
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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