FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$375.78
-4.20 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
-1.34%
90d:
+0.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
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1 traders called FDX this week
0% bullish • 2 bearish
0% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$538.47
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$334.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $375.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $367.28 to $390.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $384.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $384.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$367.28 -
$390.86
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($400.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$367.28 -
$390.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$18.91
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$354.14
Resistance Level
$384.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.80
Wall Street Target
$400.96
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$382.54
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$389.43
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$396.44
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$375.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.4%)
$720.00
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 13.4%)
$548.07
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 13.4%)
$465.86
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.73
Bull Case
$499.17
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.4%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$453.79
(+21%)
Market implied 19.4%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$258.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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Advanced FDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FDX price and gamma walls.
