FTAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$237.97
-20.98 (-8.10%)
▼
5d:
-11.96%
30d:
-6.28%
90d:
-14.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
FTAI is down 12.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $310 2026-06-18 with 1,039 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$562.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$348.96
31.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $237.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.75 to $267.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (28.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $237.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $344.00 (+44.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $237.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $344.00 (+44.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$231.75 -
$267.73
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FTAI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.6% below Wall St target ($344.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$231.75 -
$267.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$237.03
Resistance Level
$288.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.61
Wall Street Target
$344.00
(+44.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 28.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$192.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$173.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→29)
$240.69
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 56.6%)
$859.87
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 56.6%)
$803.15
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 56.6%)
$682.68
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.02
Bull Case
$537.09
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.5
Base Case
$488.26
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.6
Bear Case
$166.01
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 28.6
Stabilization Target:
$330.16
(+38.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FTAI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FTAI price and gamma walls.