GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$37.86
0.76 (2.06%)
▲
5d:
+3.29%
30d:
-2.79%
90d:
-12.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $37.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.95 to $42.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (35.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.97 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.97 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$36.95 -
$42.03
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($50.97)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.95 -
$42.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.53
Resistance Level
$37.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.15
Wall Street Target
$50.97
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 35.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.12
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$33.26
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$31.50
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→36)
$37.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 34.0%)
$89.22
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 34.0%)
$65.32
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 34.0%)
$55.52
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 45.05 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.82
Bull Case
$44.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$37.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 45.1
Bear Case
$28.37
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.1 to 35.5
Stabilization Target:
$43.68
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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