HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$150.35
-0.58 (-0.38%)
▼
5d:
-1.65%
30d:
-5.31%
90d:
-9.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.97
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $150.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.44 to $159.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $146.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.25 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $146.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.25 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$150.44 -
$159.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($172.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.44 -
$159.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.58
Resistance Level
$156.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.64
Wall Street Target
$172.25
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 19.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.49
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$138.85
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$133.44
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$149.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$249.80
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$199.61
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$169.67
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.22
Bull Case
$227.01
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.1%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$206.37
(+37%)
Market implied 37.1%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$102.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$168.80
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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