HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$260.35
-12.02 (-4.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.77%
30d:
+5.15%
90d:
+4.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HWM is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $250 2026-06-18 with 2,400 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$247.87
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$153.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $260.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $240.19 to $264.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.7) is in line with its historical norms (45.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $238.35, while resistance sits at $280.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $300.31 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $238.35, while resistance sits at $280.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $300.31 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$240.19 -
$264.20
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($300.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$240.19 -
$264.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$238.35
Resistance Level
$280.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.74
Wall Street Target
$300.31
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.7 vs 45.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$256.18
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$252.09
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$248.05
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→46)
$260.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.7, Growth: 17.7%)
$424.08
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 17.7%)
$213.98
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$181.88
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 63.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.30
Bull Case
$414.73
(+59%)
Analyst growth 38.4%, PE expands to 69.7
Base Case
$377.03
(+45%)
Market implied 38.4%, PE stable at 63.3
Bear Case
$185.21
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.7 to 45.9
Stabilization Target:
$273.21
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Barbara Lou Shultz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-26
Neil Edward Marchuk
SELL
45150 shares
2026-02-18
Byron Donalds
SELL
2026-01-08
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