JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$119.26
-1.02 (-0.85%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.28
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.33
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $119.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.73 to $120.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 181.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.44 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.44 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$112.73 -
$120.50
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($134.44)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$112.73 -
$120.50
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.95
Resistance Level
$120.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.39
Wall Street Target
$134.44
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
181.3%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 24.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.51
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$114.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$112.17
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→24)
$120.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.3%)
$189.41
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.3%)
$188.68
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 16.3%)
$160.38
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$256.83
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.8
Base Case
$233.48
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.4
Bear Case
$79.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$128.95
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel C Mcconeghy
SELL
5917 shares
2025-09-03
Nathan D Manning
SELL
1422 shares
2025-09-02
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-08-19
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
