BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$70.18
-0.23 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-6.28%
30d:
-20.7%
90d:
-38.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
BLDR is down 8.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-06-18 with 2,878 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.51
32.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $70.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.82 to $88.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+38.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+38.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$74.82 -
$88.81
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLDR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.8% below Wall St target ($97.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.82 -
$88.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.86
Resistance Level
$83.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.94
Wall Street Target
$97.38
(+38.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.55
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$61.22
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$57.18
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$70.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 37.2%)
$335.26
(+378%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 37.2%)
$181.07
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 37.2%)
$153.91
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.62
Bull Case
$161.88
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$147.16
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$50.03
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$86.43
(+23.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Paul S Levy
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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