KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$29.43
0.50 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
+10.93%
90d:
+1.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KDP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.95
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $29.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.70 to $29.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $29.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.25 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $29.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KDP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.25 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$26.70 -
$29.27
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.70 -
$29.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.84
Resistance Level
$29.68
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.46
Wall Street Target
$33.25
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.47
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$28.01
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$27.56
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$28.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$75.17
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 10.5%)
$39.02
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$33.17
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$59.87
(+107%)
Analyst growth 87.0%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$54.43
(+88%)
Market implied 87.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$19.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$30.30
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Angela A Stephens
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-12
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