KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$36.93
-1.16 (-3.05%)
▼
5d:
-8.45%
30d:
-8.79%
90d:
-10.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 19, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
KMX is up 6.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $35 2026-07-17 with 1,758 OI. Put ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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1 traders called KMX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KMX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KMX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.08
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $36.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.34 to $43.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.17 (+14.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.17 (+14.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.34 -
$43.15
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KMX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.17)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.34 -
$43.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.43
Resistance Level
$40.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.75
Wall Street Target
$42.17
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.2%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.98
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$35.51
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$37.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -6.5%)
$45.18
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: -6.5%)
$30.19
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: -6.5%)
$25.66
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$60.78
(+60%)
Analyst growth 49.0%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$55.25
(+45%)
Market implied 49.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$25.21
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$38.56
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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Advanced KMX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMX price and gamma walls.
