LKQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LKQ - LKQ Corporation
$28.89
-0.29 (-0.99%)
ā¼
5d:
+0.35%
30d:
-12.75%
90d:
-5.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
23d
Smart Money Distribution
LKQ is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $30 2026-05-15 with 6,755 OI. Put ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: LKQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
ā BUY SIGNAL: LKQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.55
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LKQ is currently trading at $28.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.00 to $32.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.64, while resistance sits at $29.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.94 (+41.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.64, while resistance sits at $29.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.94 (+41.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$29.00 -
$32.68
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.7% below Wall St target ($40.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.00 -
$32.68
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.64
Resistance Level
$29.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.69
Wall Street Target
$40.94
(+41.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.7%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.91
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$26.96
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$26.04
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9ā10)
$29.06
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$97.22
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$37.81
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$32.14
(+11%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$44.73
(+55%)
Analyst growth 43.9%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$40.66
(+41%)
Market implied 43.9%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$19.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$32.24
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LKQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-11-03
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Advanced LKQ Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LKQ price and gamma walls.
