LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$70.31
-2.39 (-3.29%)
▼
5d:
-2.99%
30d:
-12.76%
90d:
-12.95%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
LPX is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 191 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.18
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $70.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.18 to $81.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $69.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $69.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$72.18 -
$81.44
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($101.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$72.18 -
$81.44
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.22
(6.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.63
Resistance Level
$75.69
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.90
Wall Street Target
$101.50
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 21.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.01
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$59.94
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$54.42
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$72.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 61.1%)
$344.80
(+374%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 61.1%)
$245.36
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 61.1%)
$208.56
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$153.82
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$139.84
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$47.55
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$96.91
(+33.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 12:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lizanne M Bruce
SELL
1300 shares
2026-03-10
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
F Nicholas Grasberger I…
BUY
20000 shares
2026-02-19
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Advanced LPX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LPX price and gamma walls.
