LPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$83.74
-2.70 (-3.12%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.73
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.94
14.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $83.74, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.52 to $91.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$82.52 -
$91.76
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LPX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($103.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with -8.2% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$82.52 -
$91.76
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.69
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.10
Resistance Level
$94.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.33
Wall Street Target
$103.00
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$90.29
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$92.27
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 36.4%)
$219.56
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 36.4%)
$201.22
(+133%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 36.4%)
$171.04
(+98%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$111.83
(+34%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.5
Base Case
$101.66
(+21%)
Market implied 15.0%, PE stable at 28.6
Bear Case
$60.13
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-25
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Ozey K Horton Jr
SELL
500 shares
2025-08-14
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Advanced LPX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LPX price and gamma walls.
